Prime Minister Michel Barnier of France is set to deliver a crucial policy address on Tuesday, marking a pivotal moment for his recently established government. The speech comes at a time when Barnier is striving to stabilize his administration and navigate the political uncertainty that has gripped France since he took office just three weeks ago.
Barnier’s Government Faces an Uncertain Future
Michel Barnier, known for his past role as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, was appointed as Prime Minister by centrist President Emmanuel Macron. Barnier, a figure from the right-wing, was chosen in hopes of injecting stability into a government rocked by the political turmoil following the summer’s snap elections. The results of these elections led to a hung parliament, leaving the country’s political landscape in a state of flux.
Despite managing to form a minority right-wing government, Barnier’s administration remains vulnerable to challenges from both the left and the far right. The threat of a no-confidence vote looms large, with the potential to destabilize his government.
The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, holds the most seats of any single party in the new National Assembly. Political observers suggest that the survival of Barnier’s government might be subject to the whims of Le Pen’s party. Meanwhile, a coalition of left-wing lawmakers is poised to introduce a no-confidence motion, although the RN appears to be waiting for a more strategic moment to act.
This rightward shift in French politics mirrors a broader trend across Europe, with Austria’s far-right Freedom Party recently emerging victorious in national elections, further highlighting the changing political dynamics on the continent.
“I have been here for 20 days, and I do not know for how much longer,” Barnier admitted on Saturday, candidly addressing the fragile nature of his position. He acknowledged the “unprecedented situation” in the National Assembly but insisted, “I am here as someone who is embarking on a long journey … with a lot of determination.”
Budget Reforms: Tax Hikes on the Horizon
A central focus of Barnier’s policy speech will be addressing France’s fiscal challenges. He aims to improve the nation’s budget position by introducing tax reforms that would target wealthier citizens and large corporations, while protecting those “on the ground, who work, who produce.”
French newspaper Le Parisien has reported that Barnier’s government is considering measures to boost state revenues by €15 billion to €18 billion. These proposed measures are part of an effort to plug a significant gap in the budget of the eurozone’s second-largest economy and to finalize the state budget for 2025 by mid-October.
The potential reforms include several key elements:
Corporate Taxes: The government plans to raise around €8 billion through increased taxes on corporations.
Energy Companies and Share Buybacks: An additional €3 billion levy could be imposed on energy companies and share buybacks, further contributing to state revenue.
Income Tax for High Earners: Top earners may face significantly higher income taxes, which could generate approximately €3 billion.
Electricity Taxes: There’s also talk of raising electricity taxes, projected to bring in another €3 billion.
Moreover, Barnier is reportedly considering delaying France’s target to meet the eurozone’s 3% deficit goal from 2027 to 2029, a move that has sparked criticism from within his own political ranks.
In a sign of the mounting pressure on Barnier’s government, former Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin issued a stern warning against the proposed tax hikes, stating, “Many of us will not be able to support a government that would increase taxes: that would go against everything positive that we have done for the French people.”
Immigration Policies Under the Spotlight
Barnier’s stance on immigration is expected to draw significant attention during his speech, especially in light of recent events. The brutal rape and murder of a 19-year-old student in Paris, allegedly by a Moroccan suspect, have intensified the public debate on immigration policies.
Barnier has previously called for a moratorium on immigration, signaling a hardline approach. This stance is echoed by his Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, who has advocated for a referendum on immigration. However, Retailleau has acknowledged that such a referendum is not possible under the current French constitution.
Retailleau also highlighted that immigration has been a significant factor in shaping French society over the past five decades, yet the French people have not had the “opportunity to express their opinion” on this matter. This stance has garnered support from right-wing factions but has been met with strong disapproval from the left.
Former President Nicolas Sarkozy praised Barnier’s firm stance on immigration, remarking, “The moment someone wants to do something, they are immediately accused of being between Hitler and (German occupation-era premier Pierre) Laval.”
No Confidence Vote Not on the Agenda
Despite the high stakes and the political challenges facing his government, Barnier will not seek a vote of confidence following his policy speech, according to his staff who spoke to AFP. This decision suggests that Barnier is focusing on consolidating his position and avoiding potential challenges in the immediate aftermath of his address.
Conclusion
Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s policy speech is set to be a defining moment for his fledgling government, as he attempts to navigate the twin challenges of budgetary reform and immigration policy in a politically volatile environment. With his administration under constant threat from both left-wing and far-right opposition, Barnier’s ability to present a coherent and decisive policy agenda will be crucial in determining whether his government can withstand the turbulent months ahead. As France continues to grapple with broader shifts in European politics, the outcome of Barnier’s efforts may well serve as an indicator of the country’s future political direction.
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